Top of the 1st

Since returning from his brief banishment to the bullpen, Francisco Liriano has had a outstanding run of success, as he’s struck out 4o in 37 innings while allowing a .160 opponent’s batting average, walking 14, and producing a 2.41 ERA. He’s looked fantastic and like a completely different pitcher from the beginning of the season.

As most fans know, Liriano will be a free agent at the end of the season. The question now becomes should the Twins trade Liriano at his highest value, try and extend him, or wait to try and get compensation picks after the season? One thing to consider first is just how bad the Twins rotation has been overall this season, because that problem almost certainly means that they are unlikely to go to the postseason, even in the weak AL Central.

As Dan Szymborski has written over at ESPN (unfortunately, it’s insider-only), the Twins currently, by ERA+, have the worst rotation since 1950 and they are plenty deserving of that placement at 66.3. There is a reason this is a 30-44 team. Even with the bullpen included, which overall has been solid, their ERA+ is 79. Liriano is their only strikeout pitcher–after him, Liam Hendricks’ K/9 is the best of the starters at 5.8. Wow. Batters have hit .307/.359/.518 off Minnesota starters this year, which makes them all at about a Robinson Cano or Miguel Cabrera level this year. Wednesday’s 12-5 mess against the White Sox is just the latest incarnation–the Twins can score decently enough, but their pitching is simply atrocious. They aren’t a contending team, but this seems to be something Terry Ryan recognizes and he does seem willing to trade Liriano if the right offer comes.

So, if that means they should consider trading Liriano, what would the interest level be? Buster Olney (again, behind the Insider wall) of ESPN has broken down the market for Liriano. Rival talent evaluators have had things like this to say:

“He is very risky to me as a starting pitcher. I wouldn’t have interest — if you are going to trade prospects, you need certainty that the player you are getting is an upgrade, and Liriano’s inconsistency creates uncertainty. Simply put, there will be better alternatives on the market. However, I think he has excellent value — if he were up for it — as a shutdown situational left-handed reliever. This year, left-handed hitters are 9-for-58 (.155 AVG/.436 OPS) with six walks versus 22 strikeouts” This NL evaluator concluded that Liriano was a “major risk.”

A AL scout suggested that Liriano could actually be less risky than someone like former Twin Matt Garza, as the “risk seems really limited with Liriano considering your committment is less than a year. Because of the inconsistent performance, you’d have to think he’d bring significantly less than Garza in a trade, unless he can pitch this way straight through the deadline and continue to build value.” A different AL scout was much more blunt is his assessment, saying that “Liriano is a risk, with some reward. He was someone the Twins would have let go for sure a couple of weeks ago. Garza has much less risk and much more value. I think the Twins really don’t want Liriano back unless he really goes off the rest of the year. Garza has many more suitors, and the Cubs are happy to have him back.”

Liriano has been, by any measure, much better in June. He’s had a 8.9 K/9 rate, a 3.45 BB/9 rate, a 25% K percentage, a 2.84 FIP and a 3.26 xFIP. But here’s probably what those scouts or teams considering Liriano know: last June, he was quite similar. He had a 10.27 K/9 rate, a 2.66 BB/9 rate, a 28.4% K percentage, a 2.18 FIP and a 2.69 xFIP. He was actually better last June. The problem, as Twins fans know, is that he was bad or worst every other month last year and the end of the season results (5.09 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 4.52 xFIP, 7.5 K/9, 5.05 BB/9) reflected it.

Sure, there are other things. His velocity is up from last year (to 92.7 MPH on his average fastball), but that’s not all that meaningful when his fastball is a weak pitch for him regardless of velocity–his slider is what matters. Can Liriano be the pitcher from 2010, who had a 2.66 FIP/2.95 xFIP and 6.0 fWAR? Clearly he still can for months at a time, but that’s precisely why teams will wait or offer less. Thus, if the Twins want real value for Liriano, they probably need to keep letting him pitch and hope for the best results. If he flops in July, they may have to take low value in the trade market for him.

If Liriano has a season as bad as last year, he won’t be worth much on the free agent market. The Twins could offer him arbitration, but there is no guarantee under the new rules of what compensation they will get if he signs with another team, as Type A and B free agent compensation will be abolished in favor of a system based on contract size. If the Twins can’t trade him–either because offers are sufficient or interest is low because Liriano reverts to being out of control–they may want to go ahead and offer him a one-year, incentive-laden deal for 2013. I realize the Twins are unlikely to do so, but I do believe Liriano still possesses value–especially on a team like the Twins who have a historically bad rotation with no one else around able to strike anyone out.

At the end of the day, this should give the Twins as much pause as anything else. Liriano probably isn’t valued that highly around the league right now and he may potentially be worth more to the Twins this year and the next despite his obvious control issues. He’s the only strikeout pitcher they have and though Kyle Gibson might offer that when he returns from Tommy John surgery by next year, it’s no guarantee (and it wasn’t pre-surgery certain he’d strike out many anyways). I don’t know that the Twins need to try and extend him–at least not beyond next year, but if Liriano does give them another month of success, maybe they should consider it more. Unless, of course, they can get a even better strikeout artist on the trade market. I’m not so sure that will be the case.

When a team is 12 games below .500, it would seem that pessimism would be more in the cards than a steadily brewing excitement. However, for this Twins team, they are on a bit of a roll lately. Over the last month, the offense has been significantly better. All told, they actually are a slightly above-average on the season, hitting .255/.325/.395 for a 100 OPS+. Yes, hitting continues to be down in the league, so that’s pretty solid patience and power overall for the team. This is despite guys like Danny Valencia, Brian Dozier, Alexi Casilla, Clete Thomas, Erik Komatsu, Darin Mastroianni, and Chris Parmelee being disastrous at the plate.

You’ll notice I didn’t include Jamey Carroll in there and that’s because despite his low average and complete lack of power, his OBP currently sits at .336 and his infield defense continues to give him value. Things past that look pretty optimistic actually. Denard Span is hitting .288/.358/.393 (110 OPS+) and contributing his usually above-average defense. Ben Revere’s value is obviously boosted by his average, with a .339/.369/.417 line (119 OPS+) still providing little in the way of patience or power. His .364 BABIP is high, but it’s fully possible with his speed and propensity for ground balls that he can sustain a fairly high BABIP the way a hitter like Ichiro did for years.

Joe Mauer has felt the criticism much of the season, but his .407 OBP ranks 6th in all of baseball and 2nd in the AL behind Paul Konerko’s .441 mark. Yes, the .425 slugging percentage is disappointing and it is hard to not feel Mauer is overpaid, but he remains an elite performer at the plate. I would venture to suggest that when it comes to recent long term contracts, the outcome can be far worse–think Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells. If he is a Wade Boggs-type the rest of his career (.328/.415/.428 hitter, 131 OPS+, around Mauer’s numbers this year–not to start a conversation about Mauer’s Hall of Fame potential or anything), I would not complain.

The real surprise has been Trevor Plouffe, who picked up his 12th homer last night. Plouffe’s hitting .232/.306/.535. Since May 14th, he’s hit .305 with a .768 slugging percentage and as Parker Hageman shows, there is a reason for this power. The OBP remains low, but his .303 isolated slugging percentage is outstanding. It, in fact, would only trail Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, and Carlos Beltran in the majors if Plouffe qualified for the batting title, placing him above the best hitter in baseball (Joey Votto, who currently sports a jaw-dropping .362/.485/.657 line, but seems to get ignored with all the focus on Hamilton) and others like Mark Trumbo, Carlos Gonzalez, and teammate Josh Willingham.

Oh yeah, he’s been pretty good too. Willingham’s .398 OBP ranks 4th in the AL, while his .564 slugging ranks 7th and his .962 OPS ranks 11th. He also ranks 6th in fWAR with 2.3, 4th in wOBA with a .413, wRC+/OPS+ (166/165) and 3rd in offensive rWAR (2.6). And that’s to mention Justin Morneau, who’s OBP is disappointing (.313) but his isolated power (.248) is also quite impressive.

That currently gives the Twins three of the better power hitters in the league–a rare position. Between those three, the Twins have gotten 35 home runs so far. Of course, the problem is that they have little power outside of that and have hit 49 homers as a team, while their pitchers have allowed 79. In fact, opposing hitters are batting .286/.339/.461 against Twins pitching. The offense may be on the brink of being above average, but the pitching staff is still a total mess overall.

It remains a hittable staff that doesn’t miss bats (5.84 K/9) and whose 5.15 team ERA would be the worst in baseball if Coors Field hadn’t turn into a pinball machine again (5.41 team ERA for the Rockies). In the AL, the Indians are next with a 4.43 ERA–that’s how big the gap is.

My real point here is that while the bats have turned alive and there are many positives for Twins fans and the organization in that way, the pitching is such a mess that this remains a team in flux. I still believe that over the course of the year, this is a team unlike to go anywhere. They remain 8 1/2 games out of first in the division. Their -69 run differential remains the worst in baseball. This is not my attempt to be overly cynical, but my fears that the good in the Twins season will lead the organization to make long-term steps backwards by not properly viewing themselves as sellers at the deadline.

I am in agreement with various beat-writers and bloggers that the Twins don’t need to rush to trade Willingham given that he’s on a 3-year, $21 million deal that’s looking like a steal right now. Unless they are blown away with an offer, they don’t need to follow the push of the national media to view him as a trade target. However, they should consider trading other pieces, like Ryan Doumit, Carl Pavano, Matt Capps, and yes, Morneau. Even Span should be considered depending on the offer.

I do realize that it actual becomes harder to sell to the fans rebuilding when the team looks to be playing more positively, but Terry Ryan needs to see the long-term picture. With their recent draft, the Twins rightly targeted upside with both #2 overall pick Byron Buxton and the load of pitchers they took with potentially big arms. Along with Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Oswaldo Arcia, these picks could combine to be the future of the franchise that leads the next resurgence–but not for several years.

That means identifying reasonable value right now for the franchise to hold onto. Morneau is 31 and is making $14 million. If he can be moved, it should be considered for two reasons. One is financial flexibility, but the other is Chris Parmalee. Parmalee’s potential and growth continue to be stalled with him sitting idle on the bench for game after game. The Twins need to let him start regularly in AAA or find a way to give him a real shot at the big league level, given how he recently performed at AAA. Trading Doumit, Morneau, or even both would certainly do that. As noted, it would be a tough sell on the fans, but the state of the team remains such that Ryan should remain focused on the future and ready to make difficult decisions–the biggest being a seller and not a buyer. This is a team that can still give some reasons for hope, but they are not a likely winner right now. It’s best to try and make them one as soon as possible and for a sustained period of time again.

About a week and a half ago, I made the first post in a intended series of posts on the worst trades of the last decade–just as we approach the 10th anniversary of the infamous Bartolo Colon trade. With that, here’s my second installment:

#8: Texas Rangers trade 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Terrmel Sledge, and SP Chris Young for SP Adam Eaton, RP Akinori Otsuka, and C Billy Killian (2006)

Obviously giving up Gonzalez was quite the mistake, but Chris Young did pretty well for the Padres as well until he got injured. In 550 2/3 innings, Young registered a 110 ERA+, a 3.60 ERA, and 7.6 rWAR/4.9 fWAR. As for Gonzalez, he hit .288/.374/.514 (141 OPS+) in five seasons (2006-10), racking up 19.1 rWAR/21.9 fWAR. The 141 OPS+ reflects the fact that he spent years in the cavernous confines of Petco Park, where he hit .267/.367/.442 in 1410 career at-bats there.

Of course, that’s just the post-trade analysis. What’s really confusing is why Texas gave up a solid starting pitcher in Young for a older, worse one in Eaton while also surrounding a former first-overall pick for a Drew Butera-esque catcher and a good reliever. Eaton had a 4.34 ERA (92 ERA+) in 131 career starts for the Padres, showing enough ability to miss bats (7 K/9), but also control issues (3.2 BB/9) and HR issues (101 HRs in 796 innings). He wasn’t likely to do so hot in Arlington. In fairness to Otsuka, he was a good reliever, posting a 151 ERA+ (2.57) and 9.5 K/9 in 140 innings with the Padres and was successful in two years in Texas, with a 206 ERA+ (2.25 ERA) and 36 saves in 92 innings. But those 92 innings weren’t worth the deal.

Note that when traded, Gonzalez was 23 and killing AAA pitching to the tune of a .338/.399/.561 in 84 games. Gonzalez’s power stroke was finally clicking just as he was traded. However, as bad as the trade was, I can’t place it too much higher given that the Rangers acquired Gonzalez themselves from Florida in 2003 for the price of closer Ugueth Urbina. Urbina gave Florida 38 1/3 regular innings that were quite good (1.41 ERA, 301 ERA+) and was a helpful, but not likely essential, component of a World Series winning club. Quite a silly trade by the Marlins as well and originally a big win for the Rangers.

The Padres have since turned Gonzalez over to the Boston Red Sox for prospects, ultimately ending up with flamethrower Andrew Cashner, starting pitching prospect Casey Kelly, center fielder Reymond Fuentes, and Eric Patterson. The jury is still out on that trade.

#7: Seattle Mariners trade OF Shin-Soo Choo and Shawn Nottingham to Cleveland Indians for 1B Ben Broussard (2006)

The Indians will make this list more than once and some could argue I have the wrong trades on here–but let’s just say they have some dandies. (In fairness, they’ve also had some trades that haven’t worked as well, like the C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee trades) I’ll mention right away the Carlos Santana trade–getting a potential franchise catcher for Casey Blake is a steal, but Blake actually gave the Dodgers some value and one well above-average season. Not so with Broussard.

Talk about a short-sighted trade. Writers often refer to trades like the Jeff Bagwell and John Smoltz trades as standard bearers of bad deadline deals, but at least Doyle Alexander was amazing in the second half and in the few innings he pitched, Larry Anderson was quite good. Broussard was effective at the time of the trade (.321/.361/.519, 126 OPS+), but he was a part-time player who was used primarily against righthanders and had no defensive value. He hit 238/.282/.427 in 164 at-bats post-trade.

On the other hand, Choo was about to turn 24 and was tearing up AAA pitching to the tune of .323/.394/.499 with 13 HRs and 16 steals, displaying the combination of speed and power that would make a valuable player for years to come with the Indians. Since joining the Indians, Choo has hit .292/.385/.470 (133 OPS+) with 70 HRs and 72 SBs (76.6% rate), compiling 18.7 rWAR/15.8 fWAR.

What’s funny is that the Mariners more or less traded for the Indians entire first base platoon that summer and if you combine those trades, things look even worse. The Mariners traded SS Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, a 36-year old pinch hitter specialist. Actually, this trade might be worse individually in a few years if Cabrera continues his steady improvement, as his plate discipline has made a leap forward this year. Either way, trading a rare speed-power outfielder with elite discipline or a shortstop with power for a part-time player is a mistake that former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is unlikely to live down anytime soon. And if combined, these trades might be worse than another well-known trade involving the Indians further ahead on this list.

June 4th isn’t a obviously vital day for almost any baseball team, whether they are contending or not, but today will be a major day for the Twins franchise. Or, more specifically, the next few days overall will have a significant impact on the future of the team. It is the 2012 draft and the Twins have not only the #2 pick, but six of the Top 100 picks available to them. This leaves a few clear questions to tackle before the decisions are made: who will they likely take at the #2, who should they take, and what should be or will be their strategy for the first six picks?

Let’s start with their options at the #2 spot:

Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS

Buxton seems to be the likely pick right now according to several sources and he is, by consensus, the player with most upside in the draft. Let’s just say you stop when you him compared in talent or upside to the likes of the Upton brothers, Matt Kemp, and yes, Willie Mays. Currently, he’s a 80 (80 is the highest score, from 20 to 80) on the scouting scale as a runner and spots a 70 arm. As a pitcher, he’s thrown his fastball from 93-97. His other tools currently do not grade out highly, but rather are about projection. Scouts project him to has 70 grade hitting and 60 grade power. Andrew McCutchen but a better defender or Matt Kemp with less power? That sounds worth the gamble.

There are those who believe that Buxton isn’t quite the best prep talent at the board, as ESPN’s Kiley McDonald has Buxton behid Texas high schooler Albert Almora. McDonald believes Almora is more of a sure thing, whereas Buxton has more of the upside, especially on the defensive end. Even those who do are aware that Buxton is a risk. Minor League Ball’s John Sickels similarly believes that while Buxton has a “cannon arm and grade A tools” while being “blazing fast,” he has long term questions about his bat. Of course, at the same time, Law has him as the #1 prospect on the board, which other major draft writers, like Baseball America andMLB.com’s Jonathon Mayo, agree with. As Law notes, this is the larger consensus–this is the top talent, whatever the risk is.

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

Appel appears likely to go to the Houston Astros with the #1 pick. However, if he doesn’t, which could mean Buxton or even Gausman or others are off the board, it could change what the Twins do. Appel sits 94-97 while hitting 99 on the gun with his fastball, which he supplements with a good changeup and a above average curveball. Scouts do wonder if his delivery is so easy and clean that it offers no deception to hitters, making Appel more of a mid-rotation starter than a star ace in the future. Some also wonder if Stanford has a deserved reputation for overworking its starters that should make anyone drafting them nervous.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU

Gausman has, according to Keith Law, been rising in the Twins estimation in recent days. Although Appel has dominated the discussion as the best pitcher in the draft, Gausman’s improvements this year have allowed him to rival Appel for that position. Gausman spots a 93-97 MPH fastball that has reached 99 before.  Law notes that one key to Gausman’s improvement had been changing from a below-average curve to a above-average slider as his breaking pitch of choice. He also spots a useful, but inconsistent changeup. His command has been a issue at times, so you have to wonder if that would keep the Twins away.

Carlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

Scouts do believe it’s possible that Correa becomes the best player out of this draft, even if he’s not going to be a shortstop long term–the assumption is he’ll grow into a third baseman. Like Buxton and other prep-star talent, he’s about projection as much as anything else. At 17, he’s younger than Buxton. Scouts like him to have plus power in the future, as he has tremendous hand-eye coordination and balance at the plate already.  Although he’s expected to change positions, scouts believe he’s already a good defensive player.

ESPN’s Jason Churchill ranks Correa’s power potential as the best among the prep hitters, with Buxton coming in a number three. That has led some draft experts to have Correa in front of Buxton in their rankings. John Sickels has him #1, remarking that his bat is good enough that even a move to third would not effect it’s elite status.

Kyle Zimmer, RHP, University of San Francisco

It isn’t entirely clear how much interest the Twins have in Zimmer, but some, like Sickels, have Zimmer as the best arm in the draft. Zimmer has had more struggles recently while Appel and Gausman have had the requisite success to keep them on top of the board.  Fastball often sits at 92-94, but can hit 97-99. Has a potentially plus curveball and a average changeup to go along with it. Good mechanics and stuff, but many seem to believe now he’s more of a number two or three than a ace starter. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has him as the third best starter on the board, behind prep arm Lucas Giolito and Appel. (Giolito, for reference, is down on most draft boards due to signability concerns) Goldstein does note that the Twins could be interested, something Law has suggested as well.

So, with those options, what is it the Twins are likely to do and what should they do? It still seems more than likely that they’ll take Buxton and that’s the right call as far as I’m concerned. The Twins are in a position in which they need to go after upside and accept risk. They are a rebuilding franchise, whether they like it or not, that has to be concerned most with where the team will be in four to five years, not in one or two. Someone like Appel or Gausman may be able to help sooner than later, but what good will that ultimately do?

To me, I prefer envisioning having Buxton alongside Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Oswaldo Arcia and hopefully other high upside prospects taken this year being the mainstays of the Twins lineup in five years. With that in mind, that is the goal I hope the Twins have for this draft. I’m not going to analyze individual prospects behind the second pick before the draft starts (I’ll analyze the picks once the first six are in, more than likely), but I do want the Twins to think upside over polish. I want to see signs of maturity as an organization and a understanding of where they are and need to be. I hope that means not only taking chances on high upside players like Buxton, but also not settling for control pitchers and speedy position players who lack power upside. One last thing to keep in mind is that the 2012 draft is one of the weaker ones in terms of talent in recent history–next year’s draft may end up being even more important to the franchise. Nonetheless, let’s hope that they start moving the right direction tonight.

This idea was given to me by my brother lately in reference to my remarks concerning Tshoyoshi Nishoika’s terrible 2011 season and his worst 2012 season at AAA. So far, he’s hitting .202/.309/.255 in 94 at-bats at AAA. He’s simply been atrocious. Of course, the Twins didn’t actually trade for him, but he was part of a plan–to trade J.J. Hardy, sign Nishioka, and add speed to the Twins middle infield. It was, needless to say, a terrible plan. So, where does that J.J. Hardy trade among bad trades in the last decade? It would be a stretch to call it the worst and it was certainly bad, but looking back, there have been worst trades. As usual, I’ll be splitting up the posts so I can expand on each trade but keep the posts to a modest length. With that, let’s start:

#10: Angels trade Mike Napoli to the Blue Jays for Vernon Wells (January 2011)

This is sort of cheating, because the Toronto Blue Jays turned around and traded Napoli themselves, to the Texas Rangers, for Frank Francisco. That itself wasn’t a very good trade, but considered as a whole (for the Rangers, it’s a mediocre closer for a C/1B with a great bat–a huge win) it’s a awful trade by the Angels. Vernon Wells has had a famously bad contract–he signed a 7-year, $126 million extension from 2008 to 2014 with the Blue Jays. It was one of the contracts you’d never think the team could get out of–who would be insane enough to take on that responsibility? Over that contract, Wells has hit .261/.307/.454 and collected just 6.0 refWAR/6.0 fWAR/7.3 WARP. Wells has actually had a perfectly fine career, given that he’s had overall good power numbers over his career, but he never had any discipline and was a poor defensive center fielder for years before the Angels moved him to the corner.

What about Napoli? Well, I think most people know how well Napoli did last year. He had a monumental breakout season for the Rangers that should have been recognized more by MVP voters, hitting .320/.414/.631 with 30 HRs in 113 games. Napoli is already 30 and a impending free agent, but even getting two standout years from him for the price of a overrated closer made it a great trade for Rangers. The fact that the Angels traded such a valuable commodity for possibly the worst contract in baseball at that time makes it impossible to leave of such a list.

A trade like the one the Cleveland Indians made with the Dodgers in 2008 competes well with this. That July, they got Carlos Santana, current franchise catcher, for Casey Blake. And, of course, the Twins traded Wilson Ramos in the summer of 2010 for mediocre reliever Matt Capps. The reason those aren’t quite as imbalanced, though, is because they didn’t have such a horrible contract to go with it. On the other hand, Napoli is already 30 and isn’t much of a catcher. You could go with any of those trades, but I’ll stick with this major mistake by the Angels.

#9: Twins trade P Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, and P Eduardo Morlan to Rays for OF Delmon Young, 2B Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie (2007)

Yes, of course the Twins made it on here. This trade was certainly questionable when it was made, but it has only looked far worse in retrospect. At the time, Garza was a 24-year old pitcher with plenty of potential who’s attitude had apparently rubbed certain Twins organizational members the wrong way. Garza had produced lines of 10.0 K/9, 3.93 K/BB, 2.96 ERA, and 1.11 WHIP in 305 minor league innings. In 133 major league innings, he had produced 2.1 fWAR and had shown positive trends in his K and BB rates, lowering his ERA/FIP/xFIP.

Similarly, despite his decent bat, speed, and good glovework at short, the Twins and GM Bill Smith seemed to have few qualms about trading Bartlett. In his Twins career, he had accumulated 8.4 fWAR between three seasons and a cup of coffee in 2004. They apparently desperately needed to replace Bartlett with a poor defensive player with no speed and at best a marginally better bat.

What were they so excited about? Delmon Young had been the number one overall pick in 2003, but there was evidence at the time of the trade he was just not that good. Sure, he had a robust .317 average in 1444 minor league at-bats, but that came with just a .362 OBP. His K/BB ratio over that time was 289/98, often a red flag for prospects which suggests they may not develop into complete hitters. The other was that while he had hit 25 HRs in A-ball and 26 at AA, he had only 8 in 342 AAA at-bats.

In 2007, Young had his first full season. He fooled many, including the Twins apparently, into believing he had a impressive campaign. He finished second in voting for the Rookie of the Year, behind Dustin Pedroia, even managing three 1st place votes, despite playing corner outfielder, having the inferior BA (.316 to .288), OBP (.380 to .316), slugging (.442 to .408), rWAR (3.4 to 0.6), fWAR (3.7 to 0.0), WARP (2.6 to 0.0), TAv (.281 to .245) and wOBA (.365 to .315). The only advantage Young had was in RBI, where he had 93. That was enough for the Twins to believe Delmon’s bat was legit.

As Aaron Gleeman observed at that time, the Twins needed Delmon to be a star for the trade work out in their favor, but given the concerns about his plate discipline, defense, and power, that seemed unlikely to occur.  And it did not. Delmon had one year, in 2010, where things seemed to come together, but even that was overstated. Once again, RBI played a role. He had 112, so it was assumed he was becoming a star and he even managed to place 10th in MVP voting–a ridiculous outcome. Young still hit .298/.333/.493, much better than his career .286/.320/.424 line, but a .333 OBP is subpar and that isn’t exactly elite power from a bad defensive corner outfielder. Not surprisingly, his WAR totals (1.5 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR, 2.2 WARP) reflected this. This was as good as it got.

Let’s put the imbalance this way. Since the trade, Garza has accumulated 3.8 rWAR/13.1 fWAR/6.7 WARP and Bartlett has 8.3 rWAR/10.0 fWAR/9.6 WARP. And I’m including Bartlett’s awfulness with Padres this year in that count. In four seasons as a Twin, including last year, he had -0.1 rWAR/0.7 fWAR/2.3 WARP. More to the point, Garza continues to be a good starter who would be the ace of the current Twins staff–he’s only 28 still. Delmon is hitting .245/.292/.365 this year with continuing laughable defensive play. He is never going to reach the potential he was traded for and the score will only get worse over time.

Jason Marquis was given his release by the Twins officially today, something that most Twins bloggers have written is a surprise. Not that his being released is a surprise or unwarranted, but that they did not believe he would fail so spectacularly or be released before June. Not to bask in his failure, but I wrote before the season that Marquis was a “disaster waiting to happen” who would be Sidney Ponson 2.0.

Despite that vaguely accurate prediction, I projected 100 innings from Marquis, with a 5.70 ERA and more strikeouts than walks. Marquis only made it to 34 innings, walking 14, striking out 12 while giving up 52 hits, 32 earned runs, and 9 HRs for a 8.47 ERA. Disastrous yes, but worse than the disaster I imagined. On the other hand, the Ponson reference was fairly spot on. Back in 2007, Ponson made it just 37 2/3 innings, giving up 54 hits, 29 earned runs, and 7 HRs for a 6.93 ERA, striking out 23 while walking 17. His 7.20 FIP/5.09 xFIP/-0.7 fWAR suggest that there isn’t much bad luck here, just the frayed ends of a major league career.

With Marquis mercifully out of the picture, who will and who should replace him in the rotation? Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have already ceded spots due to injury to P.J. Walters and Scott Diamond. Francisco Liriano has found himself in the bullpen after his own putrid start to the season. Marquis is now out too. The Twins’ staff has given up a 6.67 ERA, 1.7 HR/9, 4.9 K/9 and a .324 BABIP. It has been an abhorrent staff that can’t get outs–and one that, as Jay Jaffe has tweeted, proves that strikeouts kind of matter.

The Twins have chosen to call up former Gopher Cole DeVries today, but they were in the surprising position of having a few options to choose from. They could have called up a starter from AAA or they could move Anthony Swarzak into the rotation and call up a reliever from AAA. Their AAA reinforcements included DeVries, Liam Hendricks (who was sent down after compiling a 9.00 ERA), Anthony Slama, and Deolis Guerra.

Swarzak would not excite me at all. With a 4.32 ERA, 5.5 K/9, and 2.06 K/BB ratio in 268 2/3 AAA innings, I don’t see Swarzak ever becoming anything more than mediocre in his career. This year, he has 0.0 fWAR, a 4.73 ERA/4.54 FIP/4.57 xFIP in 32 1/3 innings of mixed duty, with a 5.29 K/9 and 2.23 BB/9 and he’s been helped some by a lower BABIP (.250). Given that Swarzak has started three games this year, he seemed one of the more likely candidates to enter the rotation for now. He’d be better than Marquis, but that’s a low standard. It would be one thing if they had no other options, but I think there are far more intriguing pitchers available at AAA to give a shot to if possible.

DeVries has the Minnesota angle that should excite the fans. At 27, he’s not a prospect by any means and his overall minor league record leaves a lot to be desired (4.01 ERA, 1.388 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.66 K/BB), but he’s definitely shown improvement the last two seasons. In 2011, in 90 innings between AA and AAA (primarily at AAA), he had a 3.40 ERA, 7.5 K/9, and 3.26 K/BB ratio. That includes a 2.77 FIP at AA and a 3.55 FIP at AAA. This year, in 46 2/3 innings, he has a 37/7 K/BB ratio (5.29 K/BB, 7.1 K/9, 3.80 FIP), though the 4.24 ERA likely appears a little high to the casual fan. He isn’t that exciting either, but I’d prefer him to Swarzak. Giving him the opportunity while rebuilding isn’t such a bad idea.

Hendricks, as noted, failed at the major league level so far this year, but obviously 18 innings is a small sample size. His 9 Ks are a worry, but the 4 walks are a positive and the .391 BABIP/60.7 LOB% suggests some clear bad luck–hence the 4.48 xFIP (though the 6.41 FIP is terrible). In 18 2/3 innings back at AAA, he’s produced a 14/6 K/BB ratio and a 1.93, but the 3.36 FIP/.184 BABIP suggest that he’s gotten better luck at AAA. I think Hendricks has a good future, but I’m not entirely convinced there is reason to push him. The control is there, but I’d like to see more strikeouts consistently at the AAA level before moving him up again. In 68 innings there between this year and last, Hendricks has just a 5.8 K/9 and a 3.84–though the 4.89 K/BB is sparkling. He’s still just 23, so I’d wait on him. The Twins say they are keeping him down because he hasn’t made the necessary adjustments–by which they mean “nitpicking the corners.” I agree he needs to adjust, but by that, I mean he needs to strike some hitters out again.

Slama, on the other hand, is 28 and as mentioned in my last post, has still yet to get an real opportunity with the Twins. I remain entirely baffled by the Twins’ complete lack of respect for Slama. Yeah, he walks a lot of hitters (5.4 BB/9 this year, 3.9 over his minor league career), but he also is unhittable (5.0 H/9 this year on a .290 BABIP, 5.8 over his minor league career) and strikes out a unfathomably high amount of hitters (14.4 K/9 this year, 12.3 over his minor league career). In 20 innings this year at AAA, he has a 0.45 ERA/1.80 FIP. Over 306 minor league innings, his ERA is 1.97. I have no idea what he needs to do to get an opportunity or what nefarious pictures Gardy or Terry Ryan hold over his head. He’s not getting the chance now, but while they are clearing house, he could be given the chance (or the next candidate). All the Twins need to do is get rid of a reliever with no future or real value–like Jeff Gray (4.50 ERA/5.47 FIP/4.52 xFIP).

Guerra is interesting as well–he’s also just 23 like Hendricks.  Guerra is the lone holdover from the Johan Santana trade from years ago and for a while, it looked like he’d amount to a overrated, failed prospect–the 4.80 career minor league ERA is not pretty. However, he’s been a revelation as a reliever. Between AA and AAA this year, in 26 2/3 innings, he has a 27/5 K/BB ratio, a 1.01 ERA, and has given up just 13 hits. The BABIPs at the two levels were .219 and .194, so he’s gotten some luck, but he’s also clearly changed as a pitcher to become an intriguing prospect again. I’d still prefer Slama, but, in a dream world, the Twins would rid themselves of Gray and open up a chance for both of them–I’d also take a demotion of Alex Burnett, but the 2.36 ERA has likely fooled the team into thinking he’s performing well (the 3.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 4.36 FIP/5.00 xFIP all suggest otherwise).

The Twins move to bring up DeVries isn’t a bad one by itself and dropping Marquis is certainly wise. However, doing so is only necessary because they made the obvious mistake of signing him in the first place, a misguided move that was never likely to bear much fruit. At the same time, bringing up DeVries is not enough. The Twins need to continue to make moves even though they’ve already have almost an entirely different rotation. It is high time to give Slama a shot and similarly, it would be worthwhile to do so for Guerra. He’s young like Hendricks, but as a reliever, he may have more opportunities for low leverage situations to break himself into the majors. Giving Hendricks more time at AAA is sensible, but keeping someone like Gray around doesn’t and continuing to prefer arms like him, or Swarzak and Burnett is not the best move. The Twins continue to make a few good moves, but do not move enough in the right direction.

The Twins came out with some news last night following their lost to the Angels 6-2: they were designating Matt Maloney for assignment, sending Danny Valencia to AAA, sending Francisco Liriano to the bullpen, calling up P.J. Walters for a start on Saturday, and adding Darin Mastroianni to the roster.

The question here is what are the Twins really doing. The team is 8-22. Only the Pirates have scored fewer runs than the Twins’ 102 (which ties them with the Nationals and the Padres–the Nats pitching has just been that good, as they’ve only allowed 91 runs). Only the Red Sox have allowed more than the Twins’ 165 runs. Their -63 run differential is by far the worst in the major leagues–the next team is the Royals at -32. What I see here is desperation moves that amount to shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Walters is 27 and has a career 4.51 ERA at AAA in 517 1/3 innings there. Sure, the Pacific Coastal League is a hitters’ league and thus, the high ERA has to be taken with a grain of salt, but Walters is a light-tossing right-hander who isn’t exactly a prospect. In fairness, he has shown much better control this year, with a 25/6 K/BB ratio in 33 1/3 innings so far, and over his AAA career, he’s got a 8.3 K/9 ratio, so maybe there is something there. Or perhaps the 7.24 ERA/5.86 FIP/4.40 xFIP he has in 51 major league innings is an indication of his talent level.

Mastroianni is 26 and has hit .290/.365/.395 in 397 AAA at-bats. Overall, in 2159 minor league at-bats, he’s hit .279/.368/.371 with 214 SBs. He has speed–14 steals this year between AA and AAA–but he’s hit overall just .283/.341/.345 between the two levels. He’s produced a .369 OBP in his minor league career, so he may have decent on-base skills, but the Twins already have a prospect (Ben Revere) with no power and lots of speed sitting at AAA. Yes, he’s hitting .346/.393/.423 at AAA, but that’s in 80 PAs boosted by a .435 BABIP. What’s the advantage in playing Mastroianni?

It may be that Mastroianni and Walters are throwaways from other teams that turn out to have value and such a discovery would be a good thing. At the same time, it speaks of a desperation of the organization to continue to try and compete despite ample evidence brewing that a serious rebuilding project is necessary. Certainly, such players can be part of the project, but it does ask larger questions. Similar things could be said about the Twins acquiring and continued play of outfielder Eric Komatsu.

However, Komatsu is actually more intriguing than Mastroianni. Komatsu is younger (24) and his track record, though shorter, in the minors is better. He’s hit .302/.389/.434 in 1290 at-bats, going .277/.367/.382 in 448 AA at-bats so far. It’s unclear how much power he has–it’s probably not much–but he gets on-base and has some speed. He’s a Rule 5 pickup, so he has to stay on the roster all season for the Twins to keep him around. Given what I think is a need for rebuilding to start now, I support giving Komatsu that opportunity. John Sickels wrote after he was traded to the Nationals for Jerry Hairston last year that Komatsu was a C+ prospect who would likely be a reserve outfield–plenty of speed, good plate discipline, but not enough power. That might be Ben Revere’s ceiling as well, so the Twins may as well give someone the shot to prove whether or not they anything more than a backup.

With that, perhaps it is fair to give someone like Mastroianni a chance as well. He’s older and he also clearly has no power, but he’s also shown some plate discipline and plenty of speed. If Revere is the real prospect here and needs time in AAA to sharpen his skills, as he’s still struggling there, why not give players they are less invested in a chance to show some value as well? However, if this is true and this is more about rebuilding over desperation to keep on contending, it leaves a lot to be explained.

For one, why isn’t Anthony Slama up? Maloney was rightfully designated for assignment, but he should have never wasted a spot on the 40-man roster in the first place. Slama is 28 and has never been given anything amounting to a real shot at the majors despite his record. So far this year at AAA, in 15 1/3 innings, he’s struck out 26, walked 10, given up 8 hits, and produced a 0.59 ERA. In 133 1/3 total AAA innings, he’s struck out 161 and walked 66 while giving up just 87 hits, producing a 2.36 ERA on a 10.9 K/9 rate. Yes, his control isn’t great, but the Twins weird control fetish is something they truly need to get over.

It has so enamored the entire organization that it has harmed them far more than it has helped–look no farther than the struggles of starters like Carl Pavano, Jason Marquis, and Nick Blackburn along with relievers like Matt Capps, who also strikes out no one. The Twins need a change in organizational philosophy concerning pitchers and it wouldn’t hurt by starting with giving Slama an actual chance to prove his mettle at the major league level over someone like Jeff Gray, who has his own control issues (5.68 BB/9), no ability to get the ball by anyone (4.97 K/9) and who’s good fortune (.184 BABIP, 98.7% LOB%, 6.03 FIP, 4.72 xFIP) has given him a 2.13 ERA he undoubtedly doesn’t deserve. Clearly, Slama is getting the Pat Neshek treatment–note to Twins minor league pitchers: don’t use a funky delivery or you’ll never get a shot.

Treatment of Slama isn’t the only confusing thing going on in a organization that seemingly can’t decide what it’s goal for the season is. They’ve also sent down Joe Benson recently from AAA to AA on the basis of his batting average. As far as I can tell, this is simply evidence that this front office still doesn’t understand concepts like “small sample size” and BABIP–they are apparently still years behind on the statistical revolution. Yes, Benson was hitting .179/.269/.316 in 108 PAs, but his .224 BABIP was exceedingly low for him given that in previous minor league seasons/levels, he had posted totals of .353, .300, .350, .316, .376, .328, .341, .385 and .303 in varying sample sizes. He has plenty of speed even if he strikes out a lot–that luck was going to change. Additionally, the 10.2 BB% was healthy and the 25 K% was excessive for Benson given his history. The Twins really needed to show more patience with him rather than just suggesting he was struggling with confidence–sometimes it is more complicated and a player simply needs the at-bats to show that.

At the same time, they’ve rushed Chris Parmelee to the majors, skipping AA, only to let him rot on the bench. Parmelee had hit .287/.366/.436 at AA in 610 PAs last year at 23, suggesting that Parmelee was more of a decent prospect than a future star of any sorts. (Note, Benson hit .285/.388/.495 there at the same age, cutting his strikeouts and upping his walk rate) Nonetheless, they let a hot September and good Spring Training fuel their hope and cause them to keep him on the 25-man roster going into the season. Parmelee has a 5% BB rate and a 25% K rate, suggesting that his struggles aren’t down to bad luck–his .278 BABIP isn’t particularly low. His contact rate is down, his outside swing percentage is up, and so is his swinging strike rate. On the other hand, he has a 51.9 FB% and has not hit a single home run yet, so there may be bad luck on the power outage he’s had. Parmelee probably needs more seasoning in AAA, but the Twins seem content to let him sit on the bench. A team serious about rebuilding would not make such a senseless decision.

What about Valencia? If he’s not in their long term plans, it probably isn’t a particularly bad decision. On the other hand, he’s 27. A stint in AAA isn’t likely to be all that meaningful. Valencia is likely the player he is now. That his walk rate was sitting at 1.9% is an indication of serious struggles, as is his 22.3% K rate, a big jump from the last two seasons. On the other hand, the .234 BABIP is pretty low, but it was at .275 last season. His line drive rate is down to 14.1%, his groundball rate up to 50% and even worse, his infield flyball percentage is at a abysmal 25%. He probably isn’t that unlucky and is simply not a very good hitter. On the other hand, the Twins also seem to not know their split–pretty basic stats. Through his career, Valencia has hit .325/.374/.485 against left-handers and .235/.274/.357. Valencia just needs to be platoon and used as a useful role player, but the Twins never seem to know how and when to do that. Platooning has been an issue for years and years and doesn’t seem to be changing now.

As for Liriano, this is a more sensible decision by the Twins. Liriano’s ERA sits at 9.45, with his FIP at 6.55 and xFIP at 5.25 with a declining K rate (7.09/9) and a BB rate rising to terrible proportions (6.41 BB/9). The .365 BABIP and 55.6 LOB% are signs of bad luck, but really just the difference between horrifically awful and truly terrible. He’s a free agent at the end of the year. He’s 28. There is little reason to not see if he has more value at this point as a reliever. He was great as a rookie in 2006 and once again in 2010, but at this point, he seems to have no value as a starter. I endorse this move.

One last thing to note is that at the lower levels of the organization, the Twins moves are equally perplexing often. Super-prospect Miguel Sano, who turns 19 tomorrow, is utterly dominating Single-A pitching right now. In 119 at-bats, he’s hitting .303/.417/.655 with 10 HRs, 8 doubles and two triples, with a 20/40 BB/K ratio. That K rate is still too high, but he’s definitely developing patience.  He’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts, but there is little reason as far as I can tell not to move him from Beloit to High-A Fort Myers and present him with a new challenge. I am not saying to rush him too much–he’ll stay need at least two years before he’s up in the majors more likely than not–but he’s also special and there is little reason to take a overly patient approach on him. Problem is, I doubt the Twins will do and given some of their other maneuvers, it is difficult to understand what overall philosophy they have here.

At the end of the day, while I can endorse and understand several of these moves, what I can’t understand is what the Twins organizational philosophy is right now and what it is they are seeking. This isn’t a team that can compete or is going anytime soon. The starting pitching is bad, the bullpen has a few strong spots (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing) but isn’t potent enough, and while players like Josh Willingham have hit more than enough, they do not have a good offense either. I’d say it is time to get serious about rebuilding, but I’m not sure the organization can swallow that. It would mean considering trading players like Willingham, Ryan Doumit, and others for they can get while being honest with the fans. It would mean giving players who may or may not turn out, like Komatsu, more chances. It would feel more like 1999 than 2009. Is that something the Twins are ready for?

A few short weeks into the season, several major players have signed significant contract extensions: Joey Votto, Ian Kinsler, Matt Cain, Carlos Santana, Brandon Phillips, Madison Bumgarner, Asdrubal Cabrera, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Moore and even lesser-known names like Jonathan Niese and Derek Holland.

Not every deal is close to being equal. Votto’s deal was a 10-year extension on top of his current two-year deal. That keeps him with the club until his age-39 season, with a club option after that. It is a deal that locks him up for his foreseeable career. Given my opinions on the Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder contracts, it is hard for me to love this deal. At the same time, I maintain that I believe Fielder’s is the worst because of how he’s likely to age. Pujols’ deal starts when he is 32, Votto’s when he is 30. That is of note as well–the difference between 39 and 42 may not seem like much, but in terms of production for even the best of players, it certainly is. So, while I won’t give it a endorsement, I also won’t complain as loudly. Votto, like Pujols, at least adds defense and baserunning to the picture–he’s not the one-dimensional slugger that Fielder is.

Phillips is a good example of waiting too long and overpaying. Phillips is 31 and will be paid through age 37 on a 6-year, $72 million deal. That will pay him $12 million when he’s 37. On the other hand, last season, the Brewers extended Rickie Weeks for 4-years, $42 million and Weeks isn’t yet 30. In April 2010, Ben Zobrist signed a 4-year, $18 million extension with a option for 2015 that would pay him $7.5 million. Zobrist will be 31 in May, but he was extended only to possibly his age-34 season and at the appropriate time for the appropriate cost. There are always exceptions, but as Dave Cameron has noted in his post on Kinsler’s extension, second basemen do not typically age well into their mid-to-late 30s.

Phillips might be worth it at his peak, but I doubt that he’ll keep that up. He’s a career .271/.321/.433 hitter and even at his best over the past five seasons, it was only .280/.332/.453. By the various WAR measures, he hasn’t been that impressive either–as a Red, he’s accumulated 10.7 refWAR/12.6 WARP. Fangraphs has his at 23.7 fWAR as a Red, but it is also much more impressed with his defense. Depending on how you feel about his defense, it might change your take on the contract. Regardless, he’s not a great hitter (but certainly above average for his position) and even his speed hasn’t been as impressive as one might think–he has 30 steals the in 2010 and 2011, but was caught 21 times.

What about Kinsler? Kinsler’s extension is for 5 years, $75 million, with a $12 million option in 2018. That contract takes him through at least his age 35 season. Kinsler is, as far as I can tell, the superior investment to Phillips. Kinsler is a career .276/.357/.472 hitter who since arriving in 2006, has played 786 games and accumulated 24.9 refWAR/25.6 fWAR/26.1 WARP. He’s a good baserunner (137/161 on stolen base attempts, a 85.4% rate, with two 30/30 campaigns and a BRR of 24.4 by BP’s measurement) who ranks well in all the defensive systems over his career. His walk rate is now sitting above 12% for the third straight season. One blot on his resume is that he has a major home/road split over his career, hitting .310/.396/.533 at Arlington and .242/.316/.412 on the road. Of course, so long as he’s a Ranger, he presumably keeps that benefit–but it is one way in which Kinsler can be overrated.

With Santana, he has just turned 26 and his 5-year, $21 million extension (with a sixth-year option) is more about buying out his arbitration years than anything else. The only year of free-agency covered is the club option for 2017 at $12 million. Of course, that doesn’t make it a bad deal, but as noted at FanGraphs, the Tribe more or less paid market value for Santana. Santana has hit .243/.365/.460 through 909 PAs, a .358 wOBA good for 6.0 fWAR. In 59 PAs, so far this year, he’s hit .239/.407/.478, with his BB rate up (22%, amazing) but unfortunately his K rate up as well (23.7%). His .276 BABIP remains low, but the last two seasons (.263, .277) have been no different. He put up high BABIPs in the minors (.336 at AAA, .304 at AA, .346/.408 at A+), so he may well break out still, but it is also possible he will remain a low average hitter.

Even so, with his patience and power and the Indians’ proven desire to keep him in the lineup at catcher, first base, or DH, he has plenty of value. Even if a team is paying market value, locking up arbitration years with free agency options on such a valuable commodity is a good idea for smaller market teams but it is a risk. Santana plays a demanding position with a high injury risk–but it means avoiding contentious arbitration negotiations down the road and retaining a option in the first year of free agency.

What about pitchers? Cain is still only 27 and his 5-year, $110 million deal is probably a pretty fair price to pay–in fact, I could see him getting even more on the open market. The contract will take him from his age-28 to 32 seasons at $22 million with a option for 2018 at $21 million. Cain is a pitcher who has consistently outperformed his peripherals–his K rate is good but not great (7.4 K/9, career), his walk rate is poor over his career (3.19/9) but has gotten better over time (2.46, 2.56 the last two years) and he’s a fly-ball pitcher who has maintained a low HR/FB rate (6.5% career)–his 3.7% rate last season was the lowest in the majors. In fact, since he entered the majors in 2006, Cain’s 6.5% rate is the lowest for a starter outside of Clayton Kershaw (6.4%, only up since 2008) and Kelvim Escobar (6.4%, out of the majors since 2009). He’s also maintained a career .263 BABIP. Hence, while his career ERA is a sparkling 3.33, his FIP is 3.67 and his xFIP is 4.24.

Is that something Cain can maintain? Once again, some of the best analysis comes from Dave Cameron. He suggests he wouldn’t have done the deal, but mostly because he views Cain’s future as a 50/50 proposition not worth the risk of such a large deal. Cameron points to other pitchers of similar pedigree who did well from ages 21-26 only to flounder after–like Carlos Zambrano, John Lackey, and Jake Peavy–while recognizes those who continued their success, like Dan Haren, C.C. Sabathia and Mark Buerhle. The key for Haren and Sabathia, however, has been their control and strikeout ability. So far, this year, Cain’s walk rate is all the way down to 1.13/9. His K rate remains at 7.13/9, but his FIP is at 2.81 and his xFIP at 3.39. While they are higher over his career, the trend has always been up.

One caveat is Cain’s declining velocity–so far this year, his fastball is clocking on average at 90.6–the fastball has been declining since he got in the league. He’s compensated this year and last year by throwing the fastball less (55%) and throwing the slider and changeup more. His swinging strike rate is at a career-high 10.5% so far this year, so it seems to be working. Cameron is right that there is substantial risk, but I’d suggest that if you are going to take it, choosing to do so on a player trending the right way is best. That is in contrast with someone like Zambrano, who’s control and FIP/xFIP numbers trended the wrong way even when he was in his prime years and eating up over 200 innings. With the Giants in particular, they are likely to lose Tim Lincecum within two years (he signed a 2-year, $40 million deal in the offseason) and have traded one of their best pitching prospects last season for Carlos Beltran in Zach Wheeler. Keeping Cain and Bumgarner probably makes a good deal of sense.

As young as Bumgarner is (21, 343 innings), he’s performed well so far (3.12 ERA/3.18 FIP/3.42 xFIP, 7.7 K/9, 46.3% GB rate, 7.2 fWAR) and the Giants keep control over him for his arbitration years with options after that. Moore, on the other hand, had pitched 9 1/3 innings excluding his playoff innings before grabbing a 5-year, $14 million with options taking to it worth $40 million over 8 years. This might seem riskier, but it’s a great risk for a smaller franchise to take and the Rays are proof that it can work quite well. They signed Evan Longoria to a extension in his rookie season, giving him a 6-year, $17 million extension that potentially gave them control of Longoria until 2016 with a $11.5 million option. That’s looking like a incredible bargain right now. Similarly, with Zobrist, as noted, they had him on a 4-year, $18 million extension with options of $7 and $7.5 million in 2014 and 2015. For one of the best middle infielders around, that’s also a great bargain. Or how about James Shields, who had a huge breakout season last year? He was already signed to a extension of 4-years, $11.25 million with options of $7, $9, and $12 million between 2012-14.

The Twins aren’t necessarily in that boat with any of their young players yet, but it is a important lesson to learn. The Indians in the 90s under GM John Hart famously gave extensions to young players early and kept together an amazing core that made multiple postseason runs–players like Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel, and so on. When players like Miguel Sano finally make it up (he’s hitting, by the way, .311/.447/.705 with 6 HRs  in 61 at-bats at A ball, with a 14 BB/20 K ratio–he’s looking awesome. And those aren’t numbers you frequently see from even top hitting prospects at that level and age–but here’s one who was around there: Age 19, Single-A Beloit, 2003, .313/.409/.526, 27 HRs, 71 BBs/80 Ks. That was Prince Fielder.), the Twins have to consider doing what the Rays have done with talent they immediately knew was special. Get aggressive, give him a long-term deal with plenty of options that potential gives the team control of him through most his prime.

That’s really the crucial difference between these deals. With the contracts given to Votto, Kinsler, Phillips, Cain, and not to mention Matt Kemp (8-years, $160 from the Dodgers–though, he certainly looks worth it right now. He’s hitting .460/.514/.952. Obviously, that will come down significantly, but last year is not looking like a fluke. Kemp is probably the best player in the league right now), we are talking about players who were close to free agency who are now extended into likely their declining years. With others (Cabrera, Gonzalez, Holland, Bumgarner), they’ve played enough to be approaching arbitration having already put up good numbers. With Longeria and Moore, the Rays were aggressive enough to even avoid that.

It is a trade off of risks–if you do it right when a player has been called up or soon after, it is on the basis of your scouting and knowledge of the player. But if you are right, you will end up with a incredible bargain. If not, you might wait until you end up letting a player go (like Johan Santana) or locking them up to a large deal that cripples a franchise’s ability to be financial flexible (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer contracts). Being aggressive is a strategy that should be necessarily limited to the players who are clearly special talents, but it is a worthy lesson to take away from the plethora of recent contract extensions that have been handed out. When you are a smaller franchise, it is better to take the risk earlier in order to maintain enough financial flexibility for the future if possible. Unquestionably, it is deals like that and the knowledge of whom to give them to (Longoria got one, B.J. Upton did not) that has made Tampa Bay the best organization in the league. It is time a franchise that might be in rebuilding mode to learn important lessons from them.

Twins fans probably noticed that a new face appeared in right field yesterday. That was Clete Thomas, a 28-year old outfielder that the Twins picked up from the Tigers off of waivers. Stories were abound that Thomas would provide power, some speed and a good outfield arm in the lineup who could play all three outfield positions. In order to put him on the team, the Twins optioned Ben Revere to AAA and moved Scott Baker to the 60-day Disabled List, as he’s out for the season. As the Souhan piece suggests, the Twins and manager Ron Gardenhire have long been in love with Thomas and Gardy wants him in the outfield more to dispel his fears about having both Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit in the lineup.

Christina Kahrl has pointed out on SweetSpot that even though Thomas was a hero last night with a two-run home run and a well-struck flyball to the wall, he’s no savior and his presence in the lineup is indicative of a different issue, having Mauer and Doumit in the lineup. Gardy’s worry is that he has no other backup catcher, so if there was an injury situation or a move needed to be made, he’d lose the designated hitter. This is incredibly silly. One should clearly consider two concerns on balance: one is about not having another backup catcher and one is putting your best lineup out in the field. In the former case, this is a rare, unforeseeable event that would, outside of losing a player to injury, be unlikely to harm the season overall. The latter event is one that, over the course of a season, will surely lose the team games. Part of that reason is because Doumit is one of the team’s better hitters and the other is that despite the Twins’ excitement, Thomas is not a very good hitter.

I should note first that I am not bothered that much moving Revere out of the team for now. It was only 11 at-bats that he got this year, but he struggled. It isn’t unfair for Terry Ryan or Gardy to suggest that a back-up role doesn’t do much good for Revere’s progress. One could hardly say that Revere has dominated AAA. In 141 at-bats there last year, he hit .303/.338/.364 with a single home-run and a 4.3% walk rate. In 2010 at AA, he hit .305/.371/.363 with a 7.9% walk rate. Revere is not likely to learn how to hit for power, but he needs to learn how to take his walks and get on base in order to use his speed. That would make him at least valuable at the plate.

And while he probably can’t hit for a lot of power, he needs to hit less ground balls. He was at a 72.7% rate this year and 68.5% last year. In AA in 2010, he had a 49.8% groundball rate, a 19% line drive rate, and a 23.7% flyball rate. He had a 50.7% groundball rate at High-A ball in 2009 as well, though his was as high as 61.7% at Low-A in 2008, when he dominated with a line of .379/.433/.497. Yes, Ichiro and Juan Pierre are possible comps that hit a lot of groundballs, but in their careers they have 56% and 55.6% rates respectively. For players with at least 450 PAs last year, no one was close to Revere’s 68.5%. In fact, only Derek Jeter was over 60% (62.4%) and he had the worst year of his career, hitting .297/.355/.388. Well, maybe he was worse in 2010, when he hit .270/.340/.370, but yes, you guessed it, his groundball rate was even higher–at 65.7%. His career rate (at least dating back to 2002) is 57.5%, but that’s still significantly lower. That comes with a career flyball rate of 22.4%. Revere’s last year was a measly 11.3%. Revere needs work and that means time at Triple-A. He should aim to become more like Brett Gardner (49 SBs last year, 10.9% career walk rate, 51.4 GB%) or Michael Bourn (61 SBs last year, 8.5% career walk rate, 55.3 GB%).

So what about Thomas? In 146 games and 394 at-bats so far (including yesterday) in his major league career, he’s hit .254/.336/.398 with 9 home runs and 5 SBs. In his minor league career (2,225 at-bats), he’s hit .267/.348/.399. That includes 904 at-bats at AAA, hitting .252/.336/.409. He does have 148 steals (at a 77.3% rate) in his time in the minors, including 20/23 last year, so he may well have some speed. As for the defense, the advanced statistics overall give him a positive grade (UZR, FRAA like him, Total Zone less so), but he’s only played 146 games, so it’s not a significant sample size. So, perhaps he does have good speed and defense, but that’s not entirely clear at the major league level. What is clear is that he’s not much of a hitter. His minor league record makes that abundantly clear. There is a reason ZIPS has projected him to hit only .215/.279/.353 this season. His major league numbers likely represent the best possible scenario given his minor league track record. Perhaps he can get on base at a decent clip, but calling him a power hitter is inaccurate.

Ryan Doumit certainly has the better track record of success. He’s a career .271/.333/.440 hitter in 1,990 at-bats. For reference, he was a .291/.364/.451 minor league hitter, including .329/.405/.579 in 292 AAA at-bats. Doumit is undoubtedly the better hitter and a legitimate major league hitter. Thomas might be a fine backup, but my fear is that Gardenhire will play him a lot more and forget about his other options, particularly Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe isn’t guaranteed to even be better than Thomas, but for a team like the Twins that is struggling and might well be headed towards more rebuilding, he’s a more intriguing player. Plouffe is three years younger than Thomas and his track record supports his potential for power more than Thomas’. Granted, Plouffe’s .406 slugging percentage over in the minors isn’t much better at all, but it rises to .451 at AAA due to his .313/.384/.635 line last year in 192 at-bats. Thomas never has done anything close to that.

Plouffe should be given a shot to show the Twins what he has to offer, but he’s only gotten 7 at-bats so far. That’s unfortunate and not likely to get better due to Thomas’ arrival. The words of Gardenhire and Ryan suggest that they overrate Thomas’ ability and might give him playing time that could be better allocated elsewhere. It will also mean that not just Plouffe, but Doumit loses playing time. I’m not sure how much sense that makes for the Twins. It is easy to get excited after a few good plays, but I am pretty certain that Thomas is merely this year’s Sam Fuld. Hopefully I’m wrong and the Twins don’t overplay Thomas, but I’m not certain that will happen. I am more certain that Thomas will struggle to produce much value at the plate.

Thomas felt like the big story coming out of yesterday’s loss against Texas, but that’s not the story that should incite a trend. Instead, it should be Liam Hendriks. Thomas’ story worries me because of how the Twins brass will interpret it. Hendriks’ very good start against the Rangers feels underplayed and that’s too bad. There has been little good news on the pitching-side of things so far, but Hendriks did impressively against perhaps the best lineup in the league. That’s a discussion for another post, but it should have been the bigger takeaway yesterday.

The Twins are 0-4. They are not the only winless team–the Atlanta Braves, whom I had winning the NL East, are also 0-4. Apparently, I forgot to include in my thinking the degree to which a foolish manager can harm his club. The Mets are 4-0. I don’t expect that those positions will be maintained all year–I still think the Mets will struggle over the course of the season. The Twins, like the Braves, have struggled to score runs while allowing 20 over four games. Given that I predicted the Twins would win 73 games, perhaps I wasn’t pessimistic enough.

On the other hand, it’s not all dismal prognostication. There are, to be certain, plenty of unsurprising developments. New relievers like Jeff Gray, Matt Maloney, and Jared Burton have predictably struggled. Josh Willingham has not looked very good defensively in the corner. Carl Pavano can’t even average 85 mph with his fastball. He doesn’t look like he’ll be missing many bats this season. Danny Valencia has also looked suspect at the hot corner. Chris Parmelee only got the ball in the air when he was popping it up. Ben Revere literally hit the ball on the ground every time and the results were disappointing. Francisco Liriano briefly appeared to be carrying over the prospects of his spring before a solo home run shook his foundations and returned him to his predictably circumspect notion of the strike zone.

At the same time, Justin Morneau looked like he might be able to remain healthy as a DH while providing value with his bat. He’s 4-for-13 with two doubles. He hasn’t hit a homer yet, but even among his outs were a few loud flies. I visited the beautiful Camden Yards for Saturday night’s game and Morneau’s reawakened hitting struck as much as anything else.

He was able to drive the ball even when he made outs and he wasn’t turning it over and grounding out to the first basemen endlessly. That doesn’t guarantee that Morneau will return to where he left off before his injury (recall that in 2010, he was hitting .345/.437/.618 before he was hurt), but those are signs to me that my own prediction of what he’d do this year may have been too cynical. (I thought he’d hit .265/.330/.430 and be limited to 90 games)

Josh Willingham has also done well–hitting the best out of the lineup so far. That isn’t saying too much, but Willingham has gone 5-for-13 with two home runs and a double. Willingham has had some injury issues in his career, so I projected him to play 135 games and hit .250/.360/.460 with 24 home runs. He’s hit .257/.360/.479 over the last three seasons, averaging 23 home runs a year. While it is possible he can best that, I think it will be limited to power. He certainly could hit 30 home runs, but it might all be in vein. Outside of Willingham and Morneau, the Twins have no other extra-base hits. They have “hit” .165/.252/.240 through four games. It is, frankly, mostly negatives in the early returns on hitting, but I wouldn’t worry about Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit too much. And at least Jamey Carroll is taking his walks–his approach has been good, while the results when the ball is in play have been less tantalizing.

I’ve already mentioned as well many of the problematic signs with regards to the pitching staff. Pavano and Blackburn look their hittable selves and so far, the defense hasn’t look great in helping them out with their “pitch to contract” philosophy. Thankfully, Glen Perkins looks like he can have another very good year out of the bullpen. Brian Duensing has looked effective as well so far. Anthony Swarzak may have allowed one run in five innings, but don’t let that convince you he did all that well–two walks, one strikeout is not a recipe for success. I did believe that Burton had the best shot of the new bunch of scrap heap relievers, but he gave up two home runs in his first appearance. I still maintain that he has the best shot, but that also reflects how unimpressive Gray and Maloney looked in their first chances out of the bullpen. Perkins, Duensing and Matt Capps should be a solid three-some, but their support is likely to be consistently lackluster.

On the fielding side of things, I’ve again mentioned the negatives so far. However, we’ve seen some good signs too. So far, I’ve felt that Jamey Carroll has performed better than I thought he would at shortstop–he’s at least certainly made a few standout plays that fans would be remiss if they didn’t suggest that last year’s defenders might not have made. Sean Burroughs also has looked good in brief appearances at third. I’m not sure that he’ll provide much with the bat, but he seems to have a use as a defensive replacement if nothing else. He’s certainly looked a lot better than Valencia so far. And Denard Span and Revere, if they haven’t hit yet, they have performed as well as expected in the outfield. That at best might make them an average defensive team, but that would unquestionably be an improvement over last year.

An 0-4 start can certainly have fans running for the hills, especially if they’ve already foreseen their team’s struggles. But even with a tough schedule (next 15 games against Angels, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox), I don’t think they’ll be challenging the Orioles infamous 0-21 start. Try as they might, I don’t think our middle infielders can hit as badly as Billy Ripken in 1988 (.207/.260/.258) unless Nishioka returns in the near future. The Twins will likely struggle this year and I maintain that they are unlikely to contend for a playoff spot. Nonetheless, the signs aren’t all bad. A healthy Morneau who could be a stalwart DH would be a potential significant long-term development. That might be searching for hope, but it is a more than acceptable reason for optimism.